Sunspots

I suggest you read the text of an article published in the journal. ... № 45 (277 ) of 17. 11. 2008. :.

Company ' Nitol ' crisis found in the final stages of investment in manufacturing, servicing solar energy. Can only hope for Barack Obama.

In solar energy - is now a core business - Dmitry Kotenko, stepped from the threshold of the London Business School. ' Brains where we refreshed the well' - he recalls. He went to London in early 2003, director and co-owner of the chemical companies 'Group' Nitol '' frank middle peasants chemical market ( turnover time was not more than $ 150 million per year). A return of the future head of the company, a leader in the global market - ' at least a dozen '. Less ambitious businesses in the XXI century - a waste of time, so set up his listeners teachers in London. Just a year needed for it to decide on what is out of world markets will lead the company.


It appeared to be alternative energy market, namely photovoltaics - the conversion of solar energy into electrical energy based on polycrystalline silicon. Originally it was the last word in the short -list drawn up by Dmitry Kotenko. But after the settlement, visit the international exhibitions and familiarity with analytical materials have fallen all competing threads. The most important reason ... The company is located on the left bank of the Angara River, 67 km north- west of Irkutsk. For large chemical plants remoteness from markets - the evil. ...

In addition, according to his confession, large- chemistry - has formed a business and a very conservative. Prevail on him, according to Dmitri, ' monsters ' such as BASF, DuPont and Dow. Without a strong resource base to become a serious player can not. Drive there is not enough.

In pursuit of a Billion.

Not the solar energy industry, serving its solar cell production. In order not to weary the reader with an abundance of intelligence, just look at the fate of doctor Zhengronga Shi, now a partner Dmitry Kotenko. After graduating from Shanghai University in 1988, a physicist at Shea scientific exchange moved to Australia. He received Australian citizenship and began research in the field of renewable energy at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, earning $ 150 thousand. per year. In 2001 it came to the emissaries from the City of Wuxi, near Shanghai, with an invitation to lead the company to produce solar panels. Dr. Shi, by his own admission, this idea did not seem very much attractive, but out of courtesy, he accepted an invitation to visit Wuxi.

Acquainted with the situation, Dr. Shi has dramatically changed its view. The enthusiasm of the local authorities and infected him, he could not resist the promise of support. In 2001, opened its first factory, in fact, an assembly shop of the company Suntech Power, employing only 20 people. The initial investment by the city authorities, amounted to $ 6,000,000. Dr. Shi received a blocking. Went IPO in 2005, at the moment is about 54 % of Suntech Power Shi Zhengrongu belonged to (he redeemed the shares of other shareholders). In early 2008 the company's capitalization on the New York Stock Exchange reached $ 6 billion. And no pledge auctions and war for the redivision of property.

Of course, not all businesses managed so successfully ride the wave of interest in solar energy, as Dr. Shi. But, according to Dmitry Kotenko, a company that in this business does not show an annual increase in sales of at least 40% - an obvious candidate for the outsiders.

solar quality.

I can not say that ' Nitol ' at the beginning was a lot of trump cards in the hands to enter into this business. But something the company could still produce. Starting point was the production of trichlorosilane (in 2003 - three thousand. tons per year). Using this gas, it is possible to obtain high-purity polysilicon - this method is already fifty years is the ' workhorse ' of the world electronics industry. A solar-grade polysilicon (solar grade, used in solar energy ) to get even easier - it may be more impurities. Crystal cut polysilicon plate. These plates - vefery - and are used in solar energy.

Several years ago, polysilicon nobody in Russia was producing ( Soviet factories were in the Ukraine, the production of Podolsk was closed in the late 1990s). ' Nitol ' decided to fill this gap. Within one and a half years, the company rebuilt a new set of production capacity of 10 thousand trihlorsolana. tonnes per year. In 2005, there was division in Usolye ' Nitol - silicon ' and was the start of the project to build polysilicon production. Most of the required amount - $ 600 million - the company was going to bring to the bond market and through the IPO. In 2009 it was planned to produce 3,800 tons of polysilicon.

no competition.

Dmitry Kotenko was always confident in the success of your project. While the title of the photocells of the rival claims of polysilicon thin-film only (thin film) technology - its use in the world produced 10% of solar panels. In the development of this technology is now focused considerable force of researchers and investors' money. For example, Deepak Puri, an Indian billionaire, founder of Moser Baer, ​​a member of the world's third largest producer of optical media, it was in this scientific area is looking for the salvation of evaporating in front of the business - the production of DVD, where thin films are also used (see. SF N18/2008). According to Dmitry Kotenko, panels based on thin films have their pros and cons. Pros - low cost. Cons - shorter life spans (4-5 years instead of 25 years for the panels based on crystalline silicon ) and a lower efficiency - they have a half to two times less power per unit area of ​​strippable. ' And the cost of land for solar plants is becoming increasingly important ', - says Kotenko. By the way, Dr. Shi worked in Australia is thin-film technology, but it started production in China still, on the basis of the crystalline polysilicon.

Western and even Chinese competitors ' Nitol ' can produce a trump card in the form of cheap electricity ( manufacturing process is very energy-intensive production of polysilicon ). True, the trump card may be temporary. ' Without a competitive electricity prices make economic sense to lose a huge amount of business projects in Siberia. Against the background of Chinese manufacturers of many Siberian enterprises will look absolutely disadvantageous ' - said Kotenko. Already, in some regions of China's electricity prices are lower than in Siberia.

Another danger could be similar projects announced by the Russian competitors - they have at least five. But ' Nitol ' has already invested about $ 300 million and the project has advanced far enough ' in iron '. For example, in the summer of 2008, the Chinese company Trina Solar manufactured the solar modules of the first parties ' nitolovskogo ' polysilicon, after conducting its certification. Sole of the projects of competitors who had gone beyond declarations - for the production of polysilicon in Zheleznogorsk promoted by Rosatom, Dmitry Kotenko prefer to see a partner. At the very least, buy a trichlorosilane zheleznogortsy Usolye. Recently, the idea to try to create based on the two projects ' solar cluster ' - a Siberian mini- Silicon Valley. But it is also a declaration until the.

No guessing.

Dr. Shi four years after the start of the microscopic production became a billionaire. In 2007, his company Suntech Power entered the top ten world producers. ' Nitol ' less fortunate.

To finance the first phase of the project, the company in December 2006 placed the bonds by 2.2 billion rubles. When it's time for a new phase, the credit crisis struck the western. In early 2008, London has been so hospitable, in early 2003 - to raise $ 300 million on the ambitious ' Nitol ' failed. The book claims the proposed IPO has not been closed.

The company announced that it has other sources of funding. In March it was announced that the International Finance Corporation (IFC) has allocated $ 75 million for the development of the project ( bought for $ 50 million share of the amount of which shall not be disclosed and providing a loan of $ 25 million ). In March, the same ceased to be secret negotiations between the ' Nitol ' and Suntech, as early as late August, $ 100- millionth acquisition of shares in the Chinese ' Nitol ' has been closed. In the summer of a loan of $ 190 million announced Alfa- Bank. Subject is exhausted?.

It is not hard to guess that the situation in September c debt financing has deteriorated dramatically. Dmitry Kotenko, refuses to discuss this topic, but says that his days are filled with negotiations. At the same time it communicates with three banks - including those with Alfa-Bank.

It can be assumed that the rate is discussed on the loan in these troubled times. Because in normal circumstances, that is just a year ago, ' Nitol ' would be considered magical by the client. The project, which sold a share of IFC and the leading producer in its market. But most importantly - ' Nitol ' contracted production in coming years. The company has signed eight long-term ( five to seven years) contracts for the supply of polysilicon to Asia, Europe and America, worth $ 1.6 billion. Some of these contracts is contained in dollars, part of the euro. For him this year received an advance payment of $ 100 million, $ 60 million will go next year.

The market itself is fairly simple to generate analysis. The fact that he is still developing with the active support of the state, simply put, is subsidized in various ways (information for the skeptics: in three or four years may appear self-sustainable, fully competitive with conventional energy projects). These programs also support long-term. A year ago, ( but what can I say - not even six months ago ) for a normal banker customer should tell you how to fight. But it seems our world is crumbling, and the risk-free sanctuaries from the bankers did not remain. Nothing else stormy negotiations in this situation can not be explained.

In fact, suffers not only Russian project. Dr. Shi was the King of the sun (Sun King, as he was nicknamed the Western press ) just before the start of 2008. From the beginning, Suntech Power has lost 85% of the cost. Investors do not seem to believe in the growth of this market, that is, the ability of Western states (the largest buyers of solar panels - Germany, USA and Japan) to develop solar energy.

Hope returns.
Regain the trust can only wonder. And the miracle, in general, there was - in the form of Barack Obama. One of his campaign slogans was a promise to create 5 million jobs for ' green collar ', ie people serving the industry, do not pollute the environment (especially in the most alternative energy ). The plan Obama -Biden ' New Energy for America ' includes investment in renewable energy $ 150 billion over 10 years. In Russia, where the vast majority of people think of solar power complete whim, a fanatical commitment to the Obama alternative energy, no one mentioned. As no one wrote that almost one-third of the notorious ' Paulson plan ' is devoted to measures to support alternative energy, in particular, an eight-year tax credit ( the so-called ITC) for solar energy based on solar panels.

The annex to the market, this means that if the plans are fulfilled, then the U.S. will come to a leading position in the production of solar electricity. So far in the first place was Germany, which produces 46% of all electricity in solar cells ( the U.S. now - only 10 %). For manufacturers of solar panels, these messages as a balm for the soul. The additional demand will drag the industry forward.

Strongly believes in Obama and Kotenko. With the new American president in Russia could be a new branch. And even it's based on old technology, but we have to start somewhere.